Webdiary - Founded and Inspired by Margo Kingston

Climate change presents a new kind of challenge. It is uncertain in its form and extent, rather than drawn in clear lines. It is insidious, rather than directly confrontational. It is long term, rather than immediate in both its impacts and its remedies. Remedies will require global co-operation of unprecedented complexity and dimension. We have much to contribute and much to lose as we face the diabolical policy challenge of climate change. (Professor Ross Garnaut)

You can do two things with land in the grain belt. You can work it and try and make it work for you or, rather, your bank balance. Or you can give it a break, let the place go back to grass, put livestock on it, and forget about the bank balance. Few families have the luxury of that choice.

Whilst there is now plenty of discussion about the responses that governments should be making to address the predicted consequences of climate change, the focus seems to have been largely on the economic, trade and security issues. The social and human rights implications rarely rate a mention. (The Hon. John von Doussa)

The document ..., entitled 'Northern Territory Emergency Response Situation Report as at 1500 hrs Wed 14th May 08', paints a picture of an incomplete roll out of the Northern Territory Intervention, an emergency response that Mal Brough recently admitted to ABC Darwin radio was put together in 48 hours. (Sophie Black, Crikey)

Back in February, I wrote that "oil prices will continue to rise until they have suppressed demand back to match supply", and forecast a headline barrel price of $120 in June and $145 at year end. Now it's June and $139.69, what's next?

The Stockholm Network’s Carbon Scenarios describe 3 plausible futures resulting from 3 different approaches to climate policy at the international level. Worryingly, none of the scenarios provides a policy which achieves climate ‘success’ as defined by the UK, EU and UN (a greater than 90% chance of no more than 2°C warming above preindustrial levels).

While many are taking small steps personally to save water and minimise use of resources, without leaders acting as statesmen and calling for the big changes which alone can make a dent in the problem, we will get nowhere.

"... and a delay in mining operations that resulted in reduced freight" wasn't sent to the SEC, but was added in a later Halliburton media release. What mining operations might that be? Uranium, do you think?

This budget lacked vision and did nothing to protect us from climate change or the rising cost of energy. It could have been a Howard/Costello budget. It is a shame on the Labor party and I am sure thousands of Labor supporters will, like me, be very disappointed.

The ostensible argument for power privatisation is that NSW needs the money for schools, hospitals and other expenditure. The reality is that sale of capital is touted as the way to finance ongoing expenditure, analogous to the classic case of the farmer who sells off a bit of the farm each year to keep the family clothed and food on the table.

Norman Mailer once wrote: “My long experience with human nature … suggests that it is possible that fascism, not democracy, is the natural state.” Mailer was a novelist, and his business was being provocative. I found his article … to be food for considerable worthwhile thought. After the thinking, I decided he was wrong.

The way the world grows its food will have to change radically to better serve the poor and hungry if the world is to cope with a growing population and climate change while avoiding social breakdown and environmental collapse. (International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development)

Grain prices have suddenly doubled worldwide and are expected to remain at these levels. For the billions of people who spend a large percentage of their income on food, mostly the urban poor in developing countries, this is and will be a disaster.

Australia is rapidly increasing its population through immigration, yet there is little debate as to what is a sustainable population would be. It is high time we decided just what is the optimum population level for Australia.

Not longago an appealing aspect to life in Narrung was that the water coming from yourtap was piped directly from the lake. Well, it was appealing before the water receded.  On returning there at Easter I’was greeted byan initial spurt of green-grey ooze from the plumbing, a clear sign of what hadbeen going on.  A bottle of the stuff waspresented to Victorian Premier Brumby as he entered the COAG  conference in Adelaide on Wednesday.  He wouldn’t take it.

I'm interested by the claim repeated in numerous news analyses that "investors are buying oil to hedge against the sliding greenback" - it seems to me to be a tad more significant that world oil demand has exceeded world oil supply for the last several months, and looks like doing so for at least the rest of this year. My forecasts for year end 2008: $145 barrel; A$1=US$1; ULP at $1.87 per litre. Enjoy.

[Full report here] Australia’s interest lies in the world adopting a strong and effectiveposition on climate change mitigation. This interest is driven by tworealities of Australia’s position relative to other developedcountries: our exceptional sensitivity to climate change: and ourexceptional opportunity to do well in a world of effective globalmitigation. Australia playing its full part in international efforts onclimate change can have a positive effect on global outcomes. Thedirect effects of Australia’s emissions reduction efforts are ofsecondary importance.

"The perception that coal is the fossil fuel of last resort may well be an illusion." Energy Watch. Professor David Rutledge of CalTech in a lecture last October, suggests that world coal reserves are grossly overstated and could be substantially exhausted this century.

Last month may have been the most important yet in the two-decade history of the fight against global warming. ... But what may turn out to be the most crucial development went largely unnoticed. ... A NASA scientist named James Hansen offered a simple, straightforward and mind-blowing bottom line for the planet: 350, as in parts per million carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It's a number that may make what happened in Washington and Bali seem quaint and nearly irrelevant. It's the number that may define our future. (Jim McKibben)

You have come to power at a time of a looming worldwide economic crisis; a time when we desperately need new leadership to deal with the immense problems ahead of us and an end to the deception, denial and neglect that characterised the Howard era. The news is in and it is very bad news indeed.

The business leaders of 150 global companies have today published a communiqué to world leaders calling for a comprehensive, legally binding United Nations framework to tackle climate change. The initiative represents an unprecedented coming together of the international business community and includes some of the biggest companies and brands from around the world. The leaders hope that the initiative is likely to have a significant impact on the UN climate negotiations starting next week in Bali, Indonesia.

Both scientific method and the law teach one to be skeptical and base one’s conclusions on evidence. Steeped in both, I remain a climate change skeptic in the sense that, save for the effect of CFCs on the ozone layer, I can see no convincing evidence for human induced effects on the climate. By the same token, I remain agnostic on the issue: if there is evidence, I should like to see it.

"This is not a Tasmania I any longer recognise, this is Bjelke Petersens Queensland, and it is time we took our Tasmania back—back from the lies, from the intimidation, from the threats, from the character assassinations and blacklisting. Because its our Tasmania, not one company’s fiefdom. We have suffered for too many years them turning Tasmanian against Tasmanian, seeking to make us forget that what joins us is always greater than what divides us, that forest worker and conservationist, union man and greenie woman, southerner and northerner, Liberal and Labor and Green all share a great love for our island and for our people." Richard Flanagan, author

Simply put both major political parties are years behind where the technology already is. Their ‘policies’ are already obsolete.If the plant being built in California was duplicated here it would move the debate on renewable energy sources forward by ten years and it would set the benchmark by which all future electricitygeneration projects would be measured, and render the argument over nuclear power plants irrelevant.

"The US and its allies, including Australia have a pre-determined, undeclared and primary motive: to make Afghanistan safe for United States’ oil interests." Colin Miller. In his debut piece for Webdiary, Colin analyses the evidence that supports this claim.

"Monday’s feeding frenzy of expenditure would actually make inflationary pressures worse. Mr Howard spent nearly $10 billion on Monday.  Trying to buy his way out of political trouble.  And he did so little more than an hour after the Reserve Bank of Australia issued its monetary policy statement warning of rising inflationary pressures. Today I am saying loud and clear that this sort of reckless spending must stop. The commitments I announce today will cost less than one quarter of those Mr Howard announced on Monday. Furthermore, the commitments I am making today are exclusively directed at tackling the skills shortage, tackling infrastructure bottlenecks and acting on Australia’s environmental and economic challenges." Kevin Rudd, PM elect

Sydney: According to the media 28,000.  A surprisingly good turn out because it seemed to be poorly publicised this year.  I heard about it through Facebook.

During discussions about peak oil with the uninitiated I am often asked why there is no political will to tackle the issue proactively. Most seem to be disappointed with replies that don’t include Iraq War conspiracy theories or appalling tales of political and corporate corruption. The reality is less sinister but more insidious – ignorance, stupidity and bumbling bureaucratic ineptitude.

Recently, Andrew Hewett, Executive Director of Oxfam Australia was asked to address a joint meeting of the Uniting Church and Rotary on the business ethics of climate change in, of all places, the La Trobe Valley. This is what he said.

Kerryn Higgs: "As the campaign rolls on, we will hear the government’s specious arguments over and over again. Guy Pearse’s book provides a very useful antidote to the overblown claims of “world leadership” which will surely lace the rhetoric." Sally Woodward: "This book should be on the ‘must read’ list for all Australians, but none more so than those who believe or hope the Howard Government will come around on climate change if re-elected."